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Landcover Modeling

Species Distribution Modeling

The Relative Impacts of Projected Climate and Land-use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

Species distribution modeling was used to assess the relative impacts of climate and land-use change on fifty bird species for the conterminous United States. Species presence data, current and projected land-cover data, current and projected climate data, and topographic data were used in a maximum entropy modeling framework to assess impacts of climate and land-cover on bird distributions for 2001, and for multiple 2075 scenarios.

The following provides access to output data for this assessment, including:

  1. Output range maps for 2001 and 2075 for each of the fifty modeled species
  2. Images (maps) of the predictor variables (covariates) used to construct the species models
  3. Comprehensive spreadsheet providing quantitative output results reported in the accompanying paper.
Sohl, T.L., 2014. The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075. PLoS ONE 9(11): e112251. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0112251

Species Data Download (readme) Range Map Comparison Species Photo
American Goldfinch
Anna's Hummingbird
Baird's Sparrow
Band-tailed Pigeon
Black-capped Chickadee
Blue-winged Teal
Brown-headed Cowbird
Brown Thrasher
Cactus Wren
Carolina Wren
Chestnut-collared Longspur
Downy Woodpecker
Eastern Kingbird
Ferruginous Hawk
Gambel's Quail
Grasshopper Sparrow
Gray Partridge
Gray Vireo
Great Blue Heron
Great Horned Owl
Green-winged Teal
Hooded Warbler
Lark Bunting
Lark Sparrow
Northern Harrier
Northern Pintail
Orchard Oriole
Painted Bunting
Pied-billed Grebe
Pileated Woodpecker
Pygmy Nuthatch
Red-eyed Vireo
Red-headed Woodpecker Red_Headed_Woodpecker_Data,
Red-tailed Hawk
Ruby-throated Hummingbird
Savannah Sparrow
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher
Sedge Wren
Sharp-tailed Grouse
Short-eared Owl
Tufted Titmouse
Vesper Sparrow
Western Kingbird
Western Meadowlark
Western Tanager
White-headed Woodpecker
Yellow-headed Blackbird

Maxent uses spatially explicit predictor variables (covariates) to score presence likelihood for each pixel. Variables used in this assessment include current (2001) and projected (2075) climate data, current (2001) and projected (2075) land-cover data, and topographic data. The following zip file contains ERDAS .img files for each of the predictor variables used in this assessment, as well as a readme that describes the data.

Download predictor variables

Tabular data of assessment results are provided in the Excel spreadsheet found below. Information contained in the spreadsheet included all quantitative modeling data used to construct the tables and graphics in the paper. Each spreadsheet page provides the output data used to construct figures 1-5 in the paper. This includes:

  1. AUC scores for all 2001 model runs.
  2. Percentage of variable contribution to model output for the primary 2001 run (as provided by Maxent)
  3. Percentage (area) of the conterminous United States with suitable range for a given species for each of the three 2001 model runs.
  4. Change in species range from 2001 to 2075, for each scenario
  5. Ratio of 2075 range change due to land-cover change versus climate change.
Download results spreadsheet

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